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LV Finals Cube #2 ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:19 a.m.

In Response To: LV Finals Cube #2 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Doubling this was a fairly serious mistake, I think.

This match is coming down to the wire at -3, -2 and this is not a score where I want to get cute with the cube. If it's a double I should double, otherwise I should wait.

Doubling does all the normal good things of activating my gammons and killing his gammons and taking the cube away from him. However, -3, -2 is not -4, -2. I guessed my winning chances here were 53%, which is right on, but my gammons are substantially lower than I would have guessed (18-20%ish).

Also, although I don't want to get TOO cute with the cube, I can get a little cute. If it's only a very borderline double I can wait and try to steal another point or maybe he'll take too deeply. In any case I think the practical error is again bigger than the technical error here. I put the chance that Stacy would drop this one at approximately 0%.

The score (after 17 games) is: Stacy Turner 13, Matt Cohn-Geier 12 (match to 15 points)

Move number 8: Matt Cohn-Geier on roll, cube decision?

Stacy Turner	141
Matt Cohn-Geier	147
Position ID: sHeDASGYc8MRIA Match ID: cAngAdAAYAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.0482	(Money: +0.0073)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.3267
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.6733
3.	Double, take	+0.2728	-0.0539
Proper cube action:		No double, take (7.4%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.5257 0.1520 0.0185 - 0.4743 0.1815 0.0331 +0.0482 +0.3267 Standard error 0.0010 0.0009 0.0010 - 0.0010 0.0020 0.0017 0.0033 0.0055 Player Stacy Turner owns 2-cube 0.5301 0.1493 0.0239 - 0.4699 0.2094 0.0351 +0.2728 +0.2728 Standard error 0.0016 0.0014 0.0019 - 0.0016 0.0043 0.0025 0.0095 0.0095
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
6611 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 805571871 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

This would be a cube at -4, -2, though even there it's close enough that I think I can afford to take a roll since no one would drop this and may make mistakes next roll.

The score (after 17 games) is: Stacy Turner 13, Matt Cohn-Geier 11 (match to 15 points)

Move number 8: Matt Cohn-Geier on roll, cube decision?

Stacy Turner	141
Matt Cohn-Geier	147
Position ID: sHeDASGYc8MRIA Match ID: cAngAdAAWAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.1183	(Money: -0.0074)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.4615
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5385
3.	No double	+0.4395	-0.0220
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.5253 0.1509 0.0177 - 0.4747 0.1935 0.0331 +0.1183 +0.4395 Standard error 0.0009 0.0008 0.0010 - 0.0009 0.0021 0.0016 0.0041 0.0053 Player Stacy Turner owns 2-cube 0.5300 0.1533 0.0257 - 0.4700 0.2181 0.0407 +0.4615 +0.4615 Standard error 0.0010 0.0009 0.0013 - 0.0010 0.0027 0.0017 0.0061 0.0061
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
7167 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806445733 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• LV Finals Cube #2
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 12:34 a.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #2
    adambulldog -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 2:47 a.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #2
    Havard Raddum -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 12:55 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #2
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 1:29 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #2
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 3:39 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #2
    Martin -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 6:34 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #2
    Keene -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 7:51 p.m.
  • LV Finals Cube #2 ROLLOUT
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:19 a.m.