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OTB ,,rollout etc

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:57 a.m.

In Response To: OTB ,,rollout etc (neilkaz)

Overall, the risk to the blot in terms of racing off the gammon is small, but present. 7/36 of the time you wind up on the roof and lose a pip, and some small percentage of the time after that you dance. Overall on average you perhaps sacrifice a pip out of the 4 you didn't waste by running. Net gammon save race edge: 3 pips. And that ignores the gammon save value of putting a checker on your ace point with 2/1. Not a real big factor.

The big problem is that 7/36 of the time, you are knocked off the ace point, and most of the time will enter high up and have no future possibility of getting another shot or generating wastage due to safety concerns in the opponent's bearoff. These extra shots and opponent bearoff inefficiencies lead to gammon saves, and more importantly game wins.

Delaying running by one turn substantially reduces the number of builders and thus effective numbers aiming at the ace point, and thus running with the second checker next turn can be done at a comparatively much low risk than now.

Big factor here - running eliminates an immediate shot number from opponent's 1-1. That alone accounts for half of the difference in wins between running and staying.

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