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LA?

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 6:43 p.m.

In Response To: LA? (Bob Koca)

After running some WAG numbers it looks pretty close between increase/decrease. If Neil loses in the first round his odds of cashing go down dramatically but your odds of winning the event also go down fairly dramatically if you play Neil in the first round.

If I have the ABT numbers right, assuming the current 56 players, Rich or Tim can win with 2nd or 1st Conso, everyone else needs to win the tourney. You would need one more player to register to make a field of 57 in order to win the ABT, I think.

7 places = 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1C, 2C, 3C/4C. 1 = 8, 2/1C = 4, 3/2C = 2, 3C/4C = 1. Total = 22, so 8/22 * 56 = 20.36, which is just shy.

Messages In This Thread

• LA?
  Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 2:50 p.m.
  • LA?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 2:51 p.m.
    • LA?
      Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:32 p.m.
      • LA?
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:39 p.m.
        • LA?
          Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:44 p.m.
          • LA?
            Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:47 p.m.
            • LA?
              Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 4:54 p.m.
              • LA?
                neilkaz -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 8:45 p.m.
                • LA?
                  Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 9:33 p.m.
                  • LA?
                    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 10:05 p.m.
                  • LA?
                    Coolrey -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:10 p.m.
                  • LA?
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:16 p.m.
                  • LA?
                    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 5:38 p.m.
                    • LA?
                      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 6:43 p.m.
                      • LA?
                        Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 5:17 a.m.
                    • LA?
                      Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:52 a.m.
      • LA?
        Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:43 p.m.
        • LA?
          Coolrey -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 7:11 p.m.
          • LA?
            Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 8:24 p.m.
            • LA?
              Coolrey -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:16 p.m.
              • LA?
                Jason Lee -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 5:06 p.m.
    • LA?
      Chris Knapp -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 10:54 p.m.
  • LA?
    Stick -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:08 p.m.
    • LA?
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:49 p.m.
    • LA?
      Coolrey -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 7:10 p.m.
  • LA?
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:28 p.m.
  • LA?
    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:53 p.m.
    • LA?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 4:35 p.m.
  • LA?
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 3:54 p.m.
  • LA?
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 6:51 p.m.
    • LA?
      Coolrey -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 7:08 p.m.
    • LA?
      Chris Knapp -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 10:58 p.m.
      • LA?
        Jason Lee -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 3:49 a.m.
  • LA?
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 7:06 p.m.
  • LA?
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 7:20 p.m.
  • LA?
    Chris Knapp -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 10:53 p.m.
  • LA?
    MFIC -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 2:54 a.m.
    • LA?
      Coolrey -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:07 p.m.
      • LA?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:11 p.m.
        • LA?
          Coolrey -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:20 p.m.
      • LA?
        Stick -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:55 p.m.
        • LA?
          Bill Riles -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 5:36 p.m.
          • LA?
            Stick -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 5:44 p.m.
            • LA?
              Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:36 a.m.
              • LA?
                Stick -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:54 a.m.
                • LA?
                  Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 5:06 a.m.
        • LA?
          Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:34 a.m.
      • LA?
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 7:24 p.m.
        • LA?
          Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:30 a.m.
      • LA?
        Bill Riles -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 8:24 p.m.
        • LA?
          Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:28 a.m.
      • LA?
        Jason Lee -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 9:07 p.m.
        • LA?
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 9:31 p.m.
          • LA?
            Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:24 a.m.
          • LA?
            Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 2:41 p.m.
      • LA?
        Stick -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 9:26 p.m.
        • LA?
          Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:25 a.m.
          • LA?
            Stick -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:50 a.m.
            • LA?
              Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 5:03 a.m.
              • LA?
                Coolrey -- Friday, 5 December 2008, at 5:14 a.m.
  • LA?
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 3:41 a.m.
    • LA?
      Coolrey -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:00 p.m.
  • LA? unfortunately no for me. :-( *NM*
    Dan Pelton -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:45 a.m.