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BGonline.org Forums
LA?
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: LA? (Bob Koca)
Date: Friday, 5 December 2008, at 4:52 a.m.
Munitz and Mabee are bigger obstacles for you than I am Bob. Playing Neil reduces your chances of winning the ABT. You do want him to draw a strong player, but you don't want it to be YOU. What you want is him to get Munitz, in the first round while you get the only bye... PLAYING in round 1 sort of sucks... but at the moment, Pat has 58 entrants, and LA usually has quite a few walk ins, and a couple of cancellations....
I would say that 60-62 will be about the number. The byes will be precious, and winning in the first round will almost be mandatory... I took the lead in the ABT in June when I won in LA, but since then I have not won a round 1 match in 6 tries. Ergo, no ABT points since. That makes it a long hard road. In LA, I think it will be impossible, nearly, to lose in the first round and become the Champion. I think even Neil has only done that once, and it was in New Jersey when he beat some bozo twice in the finals after losing his first round match and beating all the other losers.
The thing that would increase your chances of winning the ABT the most would be drawing Neil and beating him, but by virtue of drawing Neil, you have cut your own chances the maximum amount possible, (assuming that Neil is the best player in the field). That is a very reasonable assumption... So, while it could possibly work out to be the BEST thing that could happen for you...
It already is the WORST thing that could have happened.
Last year, when I was close with Munitz and the title on the line. He got a BYE in round 1, and I drew SAX. I lost. That was not good. But Richard and I both lost our first three matches and when Gary Bauer got knocked out of the conso in the round of 8 or so... I was in.
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