I really didn't think it was close, and good thing I didn't next it, because I wouldn't have picked what all of you did! I play bar/21 24/20(2) 13/9 without much thought. Even though the rollout isn't definitive yet I still don't see how bar/21 24/16 13/9 can possibly be better than making the defensive five pt. Not only does this cut down on the gammons lost (I thought it'd be more than 2%, but still significant) but it produces plenty of shots in itself. Either way I won't be able to play inbehind you and either way I'll have a tough time bringing it home. I figure to have a much tougher time if you're planted on my five point than planted on my 16 pt. You plant in the outfield and I make a point or two, now you're squeezed all of a sudden (actually what happened in the match). If you plant on my five point and I make a point or two, you don't feel the squeeze. I'm having a tough time putting my preference into words, but I see the difference between plays larger than .020.
| 146 |                         |
| 204 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | bar/21 24/20(2) 13/9 | -0.388 | |
| 0.3% 8.7% 40.3% 59.7% 16.9% 0.6% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.279 ±0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 14669 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | bar/21 24/16 13/9 | -0.409 (-0.020) | |
| 0.4% 9.0% 40.4% 59.6% 18.8% 0.8% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.295 ±0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 15087 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||