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Luck vs. Skill

Posted By: phil Simborg
Date: Saturday, 6 December 2008, at 2:52 p.m.

In Response To: Luck vs. Skill (Tom Keith)

To me, the biggest luck factor in a match is NOT who gets the best rolls or the most doubles or the most jokers, it is who gets the most "difficult" rolls and cube decisions. I believe the major reason that two players of relatively equal skill play a given match at different ratings is because of this factor, and I believe that this, more than anything else, determines the winner when you have two players who are very close to the same skill level. I don't believe we have any method of accurately measuring this factor, particularly since it is difficult to determine what is "challenging" to one player as opposed to another. For example, I play someone who is very equal to me and you could flip a coin to determine who might win, but he is more skillful than I in checker play and I am more skillful in cube decisions. Therefore, if the match happens to have many complicated cube situations I am more likely to win the match, and if I am faced with several tough checker plays, I am more likely to err and lose the match.

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