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Master's Semis critical recube

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Monday, 8 December 2008, at 2:26 p.m.

In Response To: Master's Semis critical recube (neilkaz)

Mark, (White) should redouble and let you think about it. After you do, I bet you pass. I dunno if Mark redoubled, I don't know his game and sometimes he misses some random stuff. I suspect most players would double the great Neil Kazaross in this position, (it's hell being the top dog, I suppose).

Since the race is 10 pips in a 74 pip race, based on the race alone it would be very close. Given that Mark has 2 crossovers v. Neil's 6, would indicate a big pass to me, and the fact that you get hit with 16 numbers would tend to put it in the massive pass category, I think.

But we have to consider the numbers that leave a shot, 11, 12, 13, 14, 22, 23, or partial shot: 42, 51 being vulnerable to 26 from the bar. So lets see, Neil should gain from contact 10 x about 12 or 120 games, {out of 1296}. That is almost 10% hits overall. Probably is just about exactly that when you consider later contact and fly shots. Maybe Neil has 15% in the other variations, but a hit is not a win by any means. That decides it for sure.

Neil can use his expertise if he just passes and gets 25% plus any added equity the skill differential awards him.

I think Neil would pass this in a hot second. Don't tell me that Mark forgot to redouble, got hit and lost this game???

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