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BGonline.org Forums
More Big Chou Cubes
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: More Big Chou Cubes (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 9 December 2008, at 5:25 p.m.
Does White have a take here? This is a money game so White's takepoint is 25% + half of Blue's net g's + 100% of Blue's net bg's minus something for recube vig. What kind of net g/bg chances does Blue have here? Tough (for me anyway) to say for sure. The good news is that White already has 2 men up and 2 more exposed to direct shots. The bad news is that Blue's really short on men in the zone so White will have pretty good chances of anchoring on the 24 or 19-point. Anchoring will both cut down Blue's g chances and increase White's winning chances. Look for example at a sequence like Blue rolling 64,54,44,42,41,31, or 22 followed by White rolling a 6. Blue won't like that at all. White's not dead even when everything goes Blue's way (i.e.Blue hits both outside blots and starts bringing his spares around) since he figures to have several chances to roll boxes from the bar and get right back in the game or win the fight for Blue's ace point and get a playable ace-point game.
So I would say Blue wins a net of about 25% g's here and a couple percent net bg's. This makes White's takepoint (before deducting for cube ownership) around 40%. The cube is usually worth about 70% of the product of the taker's naive takepoint (40% here) times the other side's takepoint on your potential recube (25%)or 7% in this case. That means White can take with 33% cubeless chances. I think he's got that so I would take this cube. I'm not at all sure it's a take and even if it's a monster take, lots of people will pass this so redoubling is clear from a practical standpoint.
R/T.
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