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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 12 December 2008, at 7:03 a.m.

In Response To: When to Redouble? (Chou) (Stick)

One person cubed here, the cube was taken, not beavered.

user	68
gnubg	118
Position ID: dzdDAAI2nnGgAA Match ID: UYkRAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.0687
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.2815
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.7185
3.	Double, take	-0.0438	-0.3253
Proper cube action:		No redouble, beaver (31.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.5521 0.1179 0.0018 - 0.4479 0.1539 0.0014 +0.0687 +0.2815 Standard error 0.0042 0.0051 0.0011 - 0.0042 0.0066 0.0005 0.0114 0.0173 Player user owns 4-cube 0.5583 0.1088 0.0022 - 0.4417 0.1503 0.0019 +0.1511 -0.0438 Standard error 0.0047 0.0056 0.0004 - 0.0047 0.0057 0.0003 0.0254 0.0324
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806860184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Another person cubed here, GNU 2 ply thought it was too early still to cube. (as did I)

user	74
gnubg	111
Position ID: dzcDEAI2nnESAA Match ID: UQkaAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3509
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.5372
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.4628
3.	No double	+0.5353	-0.0019
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.6393 0.1579 0.0040 - 0.3607 0.0883 0.0014 +0.3510 +0.5353 Standard error 0.0012 0.0017 0.0003 - 0.0012 0.0019 0.0005 0.0031 0.0055 Player user owns 4-cube 0.6512 0.1605 0.0048 - 0.3488 0.1162 0.0030 +0.6968 +0.5372 Standard error 0.0013 0.0020 0.0003 - 0.0013 0.0021 0.0004 0.0072 0.0088
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806860184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

I had held off so far and still didn't double here. Perhaps I was too clouded by the racing lead I knew we didn't have or being outboarded or the duplication of aces, idk, but I waited til next turn when it was too late.

user	76
gnubg	101
Position ID: dzcDQAI2ns0BAA Match ID: UQkbAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4267
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.6956
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3044
3.	No double	+0.5829	-0.1127
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.6736 0.1535 0.0047 - 0.3264 0.0773 0.0013 +0.4267 +0.5829 Standard error 0.0039 0.0068 0.0010 - 0.0039 0.0060 0.0005 0.0121 0.0202 Player user owns 4-cube 0.6770 0.1569 0.0046 - 0.3230 0.0796 0.0015 +0.8691 +0.6956 Standard error 0.0042 0.0063 0.0009 - 0.0042 0.0056 0.0002 0.0222 0.0387
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806860184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

user	78
gnubg	77
Position ID: dzcDECD27BkBAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6555
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1887	+0.1887
3.	No double	+0.9168	-0.0832
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.7983 0.0587 0.0012 - 0.2017 0.0010 0.0000 +0.6555 +0.9168 Standard error 0.0028 0.0041 0.0002 - 0.0028 0.0007 0.0000 0.0054 0.0058 Player user owns 4-cube 0.8040 0.0565 0.0012 - 0.1960 0.0007 0.0000 +1.3299 +1.1887 Standard error 0.0030 0.0045 0.0003 - 0.0030 0.0008 0.0000 0.0118 0.0144
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806860184 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• When to Redouble? (Chou)
  Stick -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 1:49 p.m.
  • When to Redouble? (Chou)
    Martin -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 9:01 p.m.
    • When to Redouble? (Chou)
      Martin -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 9:46 p.m.
  • When to Redouble? (Chou)
    Keene -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 9:36 p.m.
    • When to Redouble? (Chou)
      Stick -- Friday, 12 December 2008, at 3:31 a.m.
      • When to Redouble? (Chou)
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 12 December 2008, at 3:39 a.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Friday, 12 December 2008, at 7:03 a.m.
  • When to Redouble? (Chou)
    lenny -- Friday, 12 December 2008, at 7:13 a.m.