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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 12 December 2008, at 7:17 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-65R-62S-42? (Stick)

After an opening 62S it's correct to hit with a 42 reply by about .02, which I happened to know. The question should be what has changed from that position then?

I always start with the race in these positions, whether or not it's the overriding factor doesn't matter, it's the most tangible. So instead of being down 2 pips & not on roll as I would be after 62S-42P I would instead be up 3 pips though still not on roll if I decided to play 42P in this scenario.

The next thing I moved on to here was board strength. Again, 62S-42? we have equal boards, in the position below I'm outboarded. Another ding against the hitting play.

We need to note a couple of other things, mainly having a back checker escaped is usually a good thing (and having him sending back is usually not) and how my opponent's rolls play. A few of his sixes are duplicated (61 63 64) and there's no sense of urgency that should move me towards hitting when I have a very constructive play otherwise. Lastly, even though I have a massive stack on my midpoint now it doesn't override all the other factors mentioned.

OtB I made the 4pt & thought it was clear. (we discussed it on the spot)

user	153
gnubg	156
Position ID: mGfkQSDgc/ADIA Match ID: cAkRAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/4 6/4	-0.2124
			0.4519 0.0972 0.0038 - 0.5481 0.1411 0.0039 -0.1401 -0.2124 0.0015 0.0014 0.0002 - 0.0015 0.0017 0.0004 0.0036 0.0091
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1198 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806052030 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/7*	-0.2458 ( -0.0334)
			0.4491 0.1083 0.0055 - 0.5509 0.1675 0.0067 -0.1621 -0.2458 0.0017 0.0015 0.0004 - 0.0017 0.0019 0.0004 0.0042 0.0107
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1198 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 806052030 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 42P-65R-62S-42?
  Stick -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 1:58 p.m.
  • 42P-65R-62S-42?
    Charlie Raichle -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 2:45 p.m.
    • 42P-65R-62S-42?
      rummer1973 -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 3:16 p.m.
  • 42P-65R-62S-42?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 4:18 p.m.
  • 42P-65R-62S-42?
    Martin -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 9:09 p.m.
  • 42P-65R-62S-42?
    phlegethos -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 10:33 p.m.
  • 42P-65R-62S-42?
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 10:37 p.m.
  • 42P-65R-62S-42?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 11 December 2008, at 10:48 p.m.
  • 42P-65R-62S-42?
    lenny -- Friday, 12 December 2008, at 7:07 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 12 December 2008, at 7:17 a.m.