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Even More Vegas Cubes

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Saturday, 13 December 2008, at 8:21 p.m.

In Response To: Even More Vegas Cubes (Stick)

It looks like exactly half of white's numbers are fairly devistating. Otherwise, blue escapes about 1/3 of the time. Lets estimate that blue wins 60% when this happens. We have 1/6 * .6 = 10% wins for blue from this sequence. It seems reasonable to assume that the situation roughly repeats each turn that white does not roll a crushing number (half the time). So assume the infinite series 10%*(1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + ...) = 10% * 2 = 20%. Give blue another 3% wins after getting closed out. I'd estimate blue has about 23% wins here. Borderline take/pass decision. I think it all depends on how often blue gets gammoned. Seems very unlikely to me.

I think it is a very narrow take. If I'm playing against a weaker player I'd pass this.

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