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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout..OTB etc etc
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Rollout..OTB etc etc (neilkaz)
Date: Sunday, 14 December 2008, at 3:19 p.m.
Persians! They figure that anything they can get away with is okay. I had one guy blatantly cheat in my match in the Consolation in LA, 3 times! He was so bad that he took everything, even once when I decided to cash when I had been playing on because I was too good. I knew he couldn't win probably even if he did cheat, but he got closer than I would have liked. He would roll 43, move NINE pips, and pick up his dice. When I tried to correct him saying that he rolled 43, he said it was 53 and stared blankly at me... Even if he did roll 53 he still stole 1 pip! I never encountered this before and notified Patrick Gibson after the match that this guy was a cheater and to beware of it.
The rollout in this position is very instructive... Zafer has made it to the money of about three of these super 32 events in the last couple of years. So, he knows how to win matches... Unlike alot of the other persians, (is Zafer persian?), who largely base their reasoning on the immediate results.
Apparently this match went according to the script for a player of Zafer's caliber against Neil... That is why, despite the obvious mathematical advantage of making the correct play here, I think it might well have been in Neil's best interest to take out some cheap gammon insurance and move 6-2. As you can see from my posts, I would have done this.
A plan doesn't have to be the best plan to work, but as long as you have one it CAN work.
With such a differential between the players... Say like 200 ELO, Neil ought to be wary of the odd lucky game that gets him gammoned. You math guys might be able to add this variable to the gammon price calculations in some way... So the actual answer, given that Neil is stronger, is much closer.
Neil has the 5 anchor, and Zafer is stripped on the midpoint, has a blot in the outfield and has two checkers semi-primed which must find their way home through nearly a mile of enemy territory! With the strippage, you don't want him moving those checkers while you are perched atop the bar. We may have to overcome some temporary nausea to slot the deuce point as players and men, but not NEARLY as much nausea as Neil experienced when Zafer served the HIT, FAN, 66 scenario to Neil. IF he tosses a set in the next game the ending to Neil's story might not be such a happy one...
This is an interesting example where the right play is blurred quite a bit by the obvious disparity in skill between the two players.
Hahaha, Neil is a tremendously gifted and great player, both technically and psychologically. He won this match by outplaying his opponent, of that I am sure. He well deserves the title of 2008 ABT champion.
I might also have won this match, and avoided the upset stomach by ducking haymakers. Nice play Neil!
I also agree with you about letting the Persians chat away... Maybe hire a few to consult with your opponent! They will surely confuse him, he won a couple of matches, while they are not even entered in the event or have already lost!
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