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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 16 March 2007, at 6:32 p.m.

In Response To: Boring Race Cube - Can you take it? (Stick)

Blue's Keith Count:
Initial Count = 65
Add 2 pips for each checker more than one on the ace point = +2
Add 1 pip for each checker more than one on the two point = +2
Add 1 pip for each checker more than one on the tre point = 0
Add 1 pip for each empty space on the 4, 5, and six point = 0
65 + 4 = 69
Increase the count of the player on roll by 1/7th, rounding down: 69/7 = 9
69+9 = 78

White's Keith Count:
Initial Count = 75
Add 2 pips for each checker more than one on the ace point = 0
Add 1 pip for each checker more than one on the two point = +1
Add 1 pip for each checker more than tre on the tre point = 0
Add 1 pip for each empty space on the 4, 5, and six point = 0
75 + 1 = 76

  • A player should double if his count exceeds the opponent’s count by no more than 4.
  • A player should redouble if his count exceeds the opponent’s count by no more than 3.
  • The opponent should take if the doubler’s count exceeds the opponent’s count by at least 2.
Proper Cube action: Double, Take

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
75
65
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.573
0.0% 0.0% 78.6% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.573 ±0.001, - live cube no double: 0.837 ±0.002, - live cube double take: 0.990 ±0.002. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games, played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0.989
2. No double 0.835 (-0.154)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.011)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.990
2. No double 0.837 (-0.153)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.010)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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