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Rollout

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Friday, 19 December 2008, at 8:17 a.m.

In Response To: Crawford Play Problem (Neil Robins)

2-ply evaluation here thinks 11/5 is wrong by 0.079. It seriously overestimates how many extra wins the hit gets.

The score (after 3 games) is: Opp 1, You 4 (match to 5 points, Crawford game)

Move number 40: You to play 24

Opp	103
You	100
Position ID: Nds2ACB2t0EABg Match ID: 8AmxABAAIAAA

• You moves 11/5

Alert: bad move ( +0.000)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/5	+0.0621
			0.5645 0.1867 0.0071 - 0.4355 0.0623 0.0016 +0.0621 +0.0621 0.0007 0.0040 0.0008 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0001 0.0015 0.0015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			4864 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812388181 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	11/7 3/1*	+0.0535 ( -0.0086)
			0.5773 0.2815 0.0215 - 0.4227 0.0941 0.0029 +0.0535 +0.0535 0.0010 0.0046 0.0015 - 0.0010 0.0008 0.0002 0.0023 0.0023
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			4864 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812388181 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	11/7 4/2	-0.0785 ( -0.1406)
			0.5080 0.1978 0.0085 - 0.4920 0.0879 0.0023 -0.0785 -0.0785 0.0017 0.0081 0.0020 - 0.0017 0.0015 0.0003 0.0037 0.0037
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812388181 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Crawford Play Problem
  Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 2:05 p.m.
  • Crawford Play Problem
    dc-ohio -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 2:09 p.m.
    • Crawford Play Problem
      Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 2:38 p.m.
  • Crawford Play Problem
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 2:36 p.m.
    • Crawford Play Problem
      Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 2:50 p.m.
      • Crawford Play Problem
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 3:49 p.m.
        • Crawford Play Problem
          Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 4:40 p.m.
        • Crawford Play Problem
          Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 4:45 p.m.
    • Crawford Play Problem
      Caryl Stephanson -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 8:49 p.m.
    • Crawford Play Problem
      Chris Knapp -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 11:53 p.m.
  • Crawford Play Problem
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 7:37 p.m.
  • Crawford Play Problem
    Martin -- Wednesday, 17 December 2008, at 8:58 p.m.
  • Crawford Play Problem
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 18 December 2008, at 4:50 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Neil Robins -- Friday, 19 December 2008, at 8:17 a.m.