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Backgame falling apart? Go for broke?

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Saturday, 20 December 2008, at 8:12 a.m.

In Response To: Backgame falling apart? Go for broke? (Jason Lee)

b/22 24/21 8/5(2)

The problem here is not a lack of men back. The problem is the difficulty in escaping the ones already back, particularly if white is able to create the 5 prime. Making the 5 point simply creates the most numbers that do nothing for white (9 dances plus 1-6 and 3-6). And if we're hit, then the extra home board point (and stronger home board than white) will give us some extra opportunities in any exchange of hits that may take place.

If we go for broke, only a tempo play such as 24/21(2) 4/1* can be right as any other non-hitting play increases the chances of white extending the prime. The problem with the hit is that we'll probably be kept on the roof long enough for white to extend the prime given his outfield control and our being outboarded.

Things are bad regardless, but I think making the 5 point will win the most games by a decent margin. But even if it is close, it will certainly win the most gammons here at GG. Predict any other play is a blunder.

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