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Position #1

Posted By: Walter Trice
Date: Monday, 22 December 2008, at 5:31 p.m.

In Response To: Effective Pip Count with stragglers (Gregg Cattanach)

I would treat White's position simply as 3 checkers with a pip count, not stack-and-straggler. (Where's the stack??) Boot Camp chapter 23 suggests using wastage = 4.7 for a one checker far outfield position and 5.2 for two checkers (like what you have after a coup classique), and of course it's something more than 7 for 15 checkers. Mindless linear extrapolation from 4.7 and 5.2 would yield 5.7 for three checkers, which is probably not so bad here.

For sure GBUBG's 6.675 is too high. As for Zare's method, if you use it here you get EPC = 3*3.5 + 10 + 13 - 4 = 29.5. 29.5 means wastage = 4.5, which has got to be too low.

With the 5.7 estimate we get 30.7 for White's epc, which puts him down 1.7. The pips-vs.-rolls guideline says that in a 4-roll position you can take down 1, so it looks like I'm predicting a close pass.

Messages In This Thread

• Effective Pip Count with stragglers
  Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 15 December 2008, at 4:25 p.m.
  • Effective Pip Count with stragglers
    Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 15 December 2008, at 7:30 p.m.
    • Effective Pip Count with stragglers
      Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 16 December 2008, at 12:56 p.m.
      • Effective Pip Count with stragglers
        Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 16 December 2008, at 2:54 p.m.
    • Position #1
      Walter Trice -- Monday, 22 December 2008, at 5:31 p.m.
  • Effective Pip Count with stragglers
    Keene -- Monday, 15 December 2008, at 7:57 p.m.
    • Effective Pip Count with stragglers
      Stick -- Monday, 15 December 2008, at 7:58 p.m.
  • Diagrams
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 15 December 2008, at 8:20 p.m.
    • Diagrams
      Keene -- Monday, 15 December 2008, at 10:23 p.m.
      • Diagrams
        Martin -- Tuesday, 16 December 2008, at 12:54 p.m.
    • Diagrams
      Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 16 December 2008, at 12:49 p.m.