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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 18 March 2007, at 9:06 p.m.

In Response To: Standard Cube or QF? (Stick)

This boring position came up in the January ... think I'm finally ready to move on to Feb. !! Mary doubled, I took, real boring. I didn't know if it was actually a cube or not. I'd have waited a turn, obviously doubles lose the market but since I have one more turn to play perfectly safe on my side of the board I didn't see the hurry. Small cube...everyone takes of course.

Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
130
110
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.510
0.1% 8.3% 72.5% 27.5% 2.3% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.510 ±0.007, - live cube no double: 0.851 ±0.016, - live cube double take: 0.873 ±0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 91946 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, without race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0.818
2. No double 0.798 (-0.020)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.182)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.873
2. No double 0.851 (-0.022)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.127)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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