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Early cube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 31 December 2008, at 11:51 a.m.

In Response To: Early cube (Jason Lee)

As Kit W suggests, we first ask if White has a take. ATS, my OTB estimates are 1) White's 2-cube takepoint is the normal 25% 2) The 2-cube gammon price is .63 3) Blue's gammonless 4-cube takepoint is 28%. I would give Blue around 17% net gammons here. 63% of 17% is around 11% so White needs around 36% if he just takes and never redoubles. Recube vig is probably worth around 6.5% here so White's cubeless takepoint is around 29.5%. Can White win this often? Sure looks like it to me so I would take.

Given that the take looks clear to me, does Blue have enough mkt losers and do they lose the mkt by enough to justify doubling? It looks like any hit-dance sequence loses the mkt by a lot and this occurs over 5/36 by my count (16 numbers hit on the 9 plus the blitzing D6 and D3 which PoH on the ace, maybe also switch on D1, and maybe double hit and switch on D2 and D4). But that's about it for big market losers. If you look at almost any other hit-enter sequence, White will have a take or a very close pass.

I don't think 5/36 big market losers are enough to send it over here. ND/T.

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