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Interesting This Morning -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 2 January 2009, at 4:08 a.m.

In Response To: Interesting This Morning (Bill Riles)

And now for the interesting part: why? Anyone? Stick can answer here if he comes up with anything worth listening to.

Position 1: With spares, hold that anchor.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

Move number 4: Blue to play 31

White48


4X2X4X3X2O ' '2X ' ' ' '

2O2O2O2O2O2O ' ' '1O ' '

Blue92

Position ID: b+8wAADbtiEAAw Match ID: cIklAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 20/19 10/7

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 10/6 -0.5761
0.21200.01780.0001-0.78800.11520.0000 -0.5761 -0.5761
0.00060.00290.0000-0.00060.00960.0000 0.0012 0.0012
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
850 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R 20/19 10/7 -0.5862 ( -0.0102)
0.20690.01520.0002-0.79310.19330.0002 -0.5862 -0.5862
0.00080.00250.0001-0.00080.01110.0001 0.0016 0.0016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
850 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 2: When stripped, split!

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

Move number 5: Blue to play 31

White41


7X2X2X2X2O ' '2X ' ' ' '

2O2O2O2O2O2O ' ' '1O ' '

Blue92

Position ID: f9swAADbtiEAAw Match ID: cIklAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 20/19 10/7

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 20/19 10/7 -0.5626
0.21870.01330.0001-0.78130.24120.0000 -0.5626 -0.5626
0.00050.00150.0000-0.00050.00810.0000 0.0011 0.0011
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1975 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 10/6 -0.5674 ( -0.0047)
0.21630.01620.0001-0.78370.14590.0000 -0.5674 -0.5674
0.00040.00220.0000-0.00040.00730.0000 0.0008 0.0008
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1712 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Thoroughly confusing since I would expect an immediate shot count to decide it. The parlay of White not leaving a shot this time, then Blue rolling something that preserves his board but doesn't have an ace in it, then White leaving an additional shot because Blue is split, then Blue hitting the extra shot, is pretty damn small.

Position 3: With spares on the 3 & 4 point, hold that anchor.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

Move number 5: Blue to play 31

White46


5X2X3X3X2O ' '2X ' ' ' '

2O2O2O2O2O2O ' ' '1O ' '

Blue92

Position ID: 3+4wAADbtiEAAw Match ID: cIklAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 20/19 10/7

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 10/6 -0.5764
0.21180.01590.0001-0.78820.11980.0000 -0.5764 -0.5764
0.00060.00260.0000-0.00060.00850.0001 0.0012 0.0012
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1009 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R 20/19 10/7 -0.5861 ( -0.0097)
0.20690.01330.0000-0.79310.20990.0002 -0.5861 -0.5861
0.00070.00220.0000-0.00070.01000.0001 0.0015 0.0015
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1010 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 4: With two spares on the two point, splitting wins, but bordering on TCTC.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

Move number 7: Blue to play 31

White43


5X4X2X2X2O ' '2X ' ' ' '

2O2O2O2O2O2O ' ' '1O ' '

Blue92

Position ID: 39swAADbtiEAAw Match ID: cIklAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 20/19 10/7

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 20/19 10/7 -0.5665
0.21670.01250.0002-0.78330.23800.0002 -0.5665 -0.5665
0.00030.00110.0000-0.00030.00470.0001 0.0006 0.0006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5638 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 10/6 -0.5685 ( -0.0020)
0.21570.01300.0002-0.78430.14130.0000 -0.5685 -0.5685
0.00020.00110.0001-0.00020.00400.0000 0.0004 0.0004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5636 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812779695 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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