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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 19 March 2007, at 5:31 p.m.

In Response To: What a mess - you figure it out (Stick)

OTB I played bar/23* 9/5* but thought it might be a bit rich. Cube centered and knowing no cube was being shipped over with this play I made it, always good to find out afterwards that the 'too big' play was actually right for once. I figured the quiet play still leaves 20 shots along with all the #s that anchor up on the 5 pt. basically killing my chances to prime or attack White. Hitting twice leaves 23 shots I think but when it works, my position is muuuuuuuch improved.

Money Game
146
161
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/23* 9/5* -0.169
1.4% 16.2% 48.1% 51.9% 24.7% 1.7%
Live cube rollout: -0.168
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.125 ±0.028, - live cube: -0.168 ±0.056. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 11478 games) played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R bar/21 9/7 -0.244 (-0.075)
0.7% 12.3% 46.0% 54.0% 21.9% 0.6%
Live cube rollout: -0.240
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.175 ±0.021, - live cube: -0.240 ±0.041. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 19344 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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