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Take?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 12:03 a.m.

In Response To: Take? (Fabrice Liardet)

It is totally accurate as long as the gammon-adjusted takepoint produced by this formula is less than the takepoint you would have if all of your losses were gammons (which would be 50% ATS). ATS for example, your ME if you drop is 50%. If you take, 38.33% of the time you win the match and 46.67% of the time you lose a single game and will trail 2-4 Crawford with 25% ME. 38.33% + .25*46.67% = 50%.

Another example: What would your takepoint be ATS if the oppt had 48% gammon chances? I method described in one of the above posts would predict 1/3 + 1/3*48% which equals 49.33%. Is this correct? Yes it is since 49.33% of the time you win the match and 2.67% of the time you lose a singe game and will then have 25% ME. 49.33% + .25*2.67% = 50% which is the same ME you get by dropping.

You can also use Kit Woolsey's blended average method to figure out gammon-adjusted takepoints. See my posts under Jason Lee's "Computing where the doubling window opens - WITH GAMMONS" (down the page a bit) for an explanation.

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