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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 7:40 a.m.

In Response To: Sunday Afternoon w/Georges Seurat (Stick)

TCTC - this was taken from the Chicago game where bets were made on the T/P. I've also rolled this out on SW, live cube, 1296 trials, and it's still TCTC (too much variance left)

I've learned enough.

Move number 3: gnubg on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	126
Stick	128
Position ID: OHcjAyBs2wYBKA Match ID: MAEAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5818
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9972
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0028
3.	No double	+0.7336	-0.2635
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7057 0.2364 0.0086 - 0.2943 0.0714 0.0033 +0.5818 +0.7336 Standard error 0.0006 0.0008 0.0002 - 0.0006 0.0004 0.0001 0.0016 0.0041 Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7107 0.2483 0.0083 - 0.2893 0.0667 0.0036 +1.2153 +0.9972 Standard error 0.0009 0.0012 0.0003 - 0.0009 0.0006 0.0001 0.0047 0.0065
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
6623 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809592241 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Sunday Afternoon w/Georges Seurat
  Stick -- Sunday, 4 January 2009, at 6:34 p.m.
  • Sunday Afternoon w/Georges Seurat
    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 4 January 2009, at 6:44 p.m.
  • Sunday Afternoon w/Georges Seurat
    pontiac -- Sunday, 4 January 2009, at 8:14 p.m.
  • Sunday Afternoon w/Georges Seurat
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 4 January 2009, at 9:04 p.m.
  • Sunday Afternoon w/Georges Seurat
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 4 January 2009, at 9:27 p.m.
  • Sunday Afternoon w/Georges Seurat
    neilkaz -- Monday, 5 January 2009, at 3:36 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 7:40 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Martin -- Thursday, 8 January 2009, at 8:15 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Philippe Michel -- Thursday, 8 January 2009, at 8:44 p.m.
        • got it, ty *NM*
          Martin -- Thursday, 8 January 2009, at 9:47 p.m.