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Rollout/OTB/etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 4:12 p.m.

In Response To: 4 fewer borne off, but a gapped 5 pt (neilkaz)

OTB, I tried to recall the proper cube action here and was pretty sure that this was close to a money recube (the way I tried to learn these positions since usually one holds the cube) but after seeing quite a few interesting cubes next turn, I decided to leave the cube in the center. However, if I think it's almost a money recube I should likely send the cube from the center, and who know's maybe I can get a pass here.

Note that the 5 pt gap is a big deal here compared to be flush.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, ntk 0 (match to 8 points)

Move number 3: ntk on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	30
ntk	32
Position ID: HwAAoG0zAAAAAA Match ID: cAkAAQAAAAAA

• ntk doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.397	(Money: +0.397)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.702
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.298
3.	No double	+0.647	-0.055
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.698 0.000 0.000 - 0.302 0.000 0.000 +0.397 +0.647 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.700 0.000 0.000 - 0.300 0.000 0.000 +0.842 +0.702 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
12960 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809520731 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, ntk 0

Move number 5: ntk on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	30
ntk	32
Position ID: HwAAoG0zAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ntk doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.001)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.396
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.672
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.328
3.	Double, take	+0.671	-0.001
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (0.3%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player ntk owns 2-cube 0.698 0.000 0.000 - 0.302 0.000 0.000 +0.396 +0.672 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.700 0.000 0.000 - 0.300 0.000 0.000 +0.802 +0.671 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
12960 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809520731 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, ntk 0

Move number 6: ntk on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	30
ntk	30
Position ID: HwAAoG0bAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• ntk doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.523
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.962
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.038
3.	No double	+0.807	-0.155
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player ntk owns 2-cube 0.762 0.000 0.000 - 0.238 0.000 0.000 +0.523 +0.807 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.764 0.000 0.000 - 0.236 0.000 0.000 +1.055 +0.962 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
12960 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809520731 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 4 fewer borne off, but a gapped 5 pt
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 2:49 a.m.
  • 4 fewer borne off, but a gapped 5 pt
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 2:55 a.m.
  • 4 fewer borne off, but a gapped 5 pt
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 3:27 a.m.
  • Rollout/OTB/etc
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 4:12 p.m.
  • 4 fewer borne off, but a gapped 5 pt
    pontiac -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 4:18 p.m.