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OTB, rollout, etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 8:30 p.m.

In Response To: Spoiler Alert: Blue EPC given. (Bob Koca)

Here I remembered Trice's method for this pos-type. White's EPC is (6 x 3.5) + straggler's pips = 38. If I move the strag to the 13 pt, my DB says EPC is 34.0 so 38 is a good number.

My EPC for a 5 roll perfect speed board is (7 x 5) +1= 36 but I certainly don't have a perfect speed board. At worst I felt my EPC would be 38 and with an even EPC I have a cube from the center.

Other considerations:

1) I almost cubed last turn and certainly didn't get any worse on the exchange, IMO.

2) Lets look ahead, I take 2 off. Now my opp needs to roll 11 or higher to really scare me.

3) I think my opp will properly pass if she rolls a small number next shake.

So I cubed and was happy to see a bad pass from my opp.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, ntk 0 (match to 8 points)

Move number 3: ntk on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	22
ntk	23
Position ID: HwAggLsNAAAAAA Match ID: cAkAAQAAAAAA

• ntk doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.426	(Money: +0.426)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.816
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.184
3.	No double	+0.724	-0.092
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.713 0.000 0.000 - 0.287 0.000 0.000 +0.426 +0.724 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.714 0.000 0.000 - 0.286 0.000 0.000 +0.901 +0.816 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
12960 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809520731 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Here's a $$$ ref pos for you all.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, ntk 0

Move number 3: ntk on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	24
ntk	23
Position ID: HwCAgLsNAAAAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• ntk doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.558
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.050	+0.050
3.	No double	+0.824	-0.176
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.779 0.000 0.000 - 0.221 0.000 0.000 +0.558 +0.824 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.782 0.000 0.000 - 0.218 0.000 0.000 +1.129 +1.050 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
12960 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809520731 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• After I waited to cube we arrived at a typical Trice Formula EPC position
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 4:15 p.m.
  • After I waited to cube we arrived at a typical Trice Formula EPC position
    pontiac -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 4:25 p.m.
  • After I waited to cube we arrived at a typical Trice Formula EPC position
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 5:11 p.m.
    • PLEASE EXPLAIN
      rummer1973 -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 5:20 p.m.
      • PLEASE EXPLAIN
        stw672 -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 5:43 p.m.
        • beautiful, thanks! NT
          rummer1973 -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 7:11 p.m.
    • After I waited to cube we arrived at a typical Trice Formula EPC position
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 5:51 p.m.
  • Spoiler Alert: Blue EPC given.
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 6:52 p.m.
    • OTB, rollout, etc
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 8:30 p.m.
      • OTB, rollout, etc
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 9:24 p.m.
    • Spoiler Alert: Blue EPC given.
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 9:18 p.m.
      • Spoiler Alert: Blue EPC given.
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 9:34 p.m.
        • Spoiler Alert: Blue EPC given.
          Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 6 January 2009, at 11:06 p.m.
          • Spoiler Alert: Blue EPC given.
            Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 3:16 p.m.