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BGonline.org Forums
Short Rollout
Posted By: Stick In Response To: OLM Tues. Jan. 6th (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 9:40 a.m.
2.5 JSDs. A lot more clear than GNU 2 ply had it as I hoped it would be. Another reason to check the link for the OLM is if I do rollouts for my plays they will be posted there.
The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 17 points)
Stick 130
Readers 121 Position ID: 1roQDAaM5xkHAA Match ID: cAkzAgAAAAAA
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 13/3 +0.5034
0.6406 0.0327 0.0007 - 0.3594 0.0390 0.0010 +0.2741 +0.5034 0.0026 0.0019 0.0001 - 0.0026 0.0018 0.0002 0.0057 0.0123 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810344572 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 8/2 6/2 +0.4603 ( -0.0431)
0.6312 0.0367 0.0006 - 0.3688 0.0426 0.0005 +0.2566 +0.4603 0.0026 0.0023 0.0004 - 0.0026 0.0029 0.0023 0.0066 0.0125 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810344572 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Annotation
The two plays are probably close but I have a real preference for 13/3 here. I would have also played 13/3 here. This keeps to keeping as many men on the high points, or more accurately here, in front of your opponent's anchor, as possible.
It gives you the point clearing 53 on the next turn or two. It will also allow doubles to play better in general. 11, 33, 55 all play better next turn after 13/3.
I can't see many advantages to making the two point other than the point being made so that if I'm forced to run off the 16pt with some sort of awkward sequence you'll be a lot more prepared to attack.
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