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Some guys are not afraid to try to win

Posted By: Sam Pottle
Date: Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 10:47 a.m.

In Response To: Some guys are not afraid to try to win (neilkaz)

Well, it's interesting.

White's takepoint at this score is not particularly sensitive to skill differences. (He would have to be almost 300 ELO weaker to get his takepoint below 20%.) White's fluky match-ending gammon wins are another matter, but those are very rare here.

So I don't think White is gonna have a take here. But Blue might be too good! White needs 47 pips to run off the gammon, and if Blue can put White in the air and get a dance or two (or just roll big), he may win the match without doubling. Blue's undoubled gammon price is close to 1 with equal players, and it actually goes *up* when White is weaker.

Blue may be technically TG versus an equal player, but I'd double in practice. For Neil vs. Neil-100, I'd take a roll. I don't see Neil-100 taking often enough to justify a double; Neil's gammon price is > 1.

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