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OTB/Rollout/Analysis etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 8:34 p.m.

In Response To: Some guys are not afraid to try to win (neilkaz)

OTB it was very clear to me that this is a big pass. But this is a score that some players can panic and take and recube. Therefore my decision was whether to play on. This is a great score to win a cubeless G, and g11 has my GV at about .85 so I should give consideration to playing for a G. But vs a weaker opp, things look even better than my for normal if I just cash.

J/T's -100 elo MET seems far off the mark for 2-away scores, noting that the MWC for the leader at -1-1 is 52% but is listed at 53% for -2-2 ! ie..I think there's lots too much cube skill but into the table at 2-away. Anyhow, I made my own estimates and think that I risk 8 to gain 10 by playing on. So my GV is .8 here.

Not much bad can happen next roll, but with me being stacked, I didn't see a huge number of G's and often think I have to cash later. Thus I cubed, noting one never knows when some weaker opp takes here. These rollouts are for equal skill.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 6, ntk 11 (match to 13 points)

Move number 3: ntk on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	122
ntk	51
Position ID: bDtFBSD+boMAAA Match ID: cAmgAWAAWAAA

• ntk doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.074)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+1.052	(Money: +0.923)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.074
2.	Double, take	+1.447	+0.374
3.	Double, pass	+1.000	-0.074
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (16.4%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.851 0.211 0.014 - 0.149 0.004 0.000 +1.052 +1.074 Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.006 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.006 0.007 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.838 0.517 0.052 - 0.162 0.004 0.000 +1.905 +1.447 Standard error 0.002 0.020 0.009 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.012 0.018
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
283 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809988235 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, ntk 0 (match to 13 points)

Move number 3: ntk on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	122
ntk	51
Position ID: bDtFBSD+boMAAA Match ID: cAmgAQAAAAAA

• ntk doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.916	(Money: +0.905)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.765	+0.765
3.	No double	+0.992	-0.008
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.844 0.218 0.004 - 0.156 0.004 0.000 +0.916 +0.992 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.850 0.213 0.003 - 0.150 0.004 0.000 +1.889 +1.765 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1127 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809988235 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

With this being almost TG at an even score (GV=.5) I probably should've rolled, but if my opp can take 1/6 of the time (seems somewhat high) my cube is also justified. Considering all, I may have made a small error here, and admit that I somewhat underestimated my G's.

Messages In This Thread

• Some guys are not afraid to try to win
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 4:17 a.m.
  • Some guys are not afraid to try to win
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 9:37 a.m.
  • Some guys are not afraid to try to win
    Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 10:47 a.m.
  • Some guys are not afraid to try to win
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 3:29 p.m.
  • OTB/Rollout/Analysis etc
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 7 January 2009, at 8:34 p.m.