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Short but Significant

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 8 January 2009, at 9:23 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. Jan 7th - Play (Stick)

But hey...I don't get too many complaints.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 17 points)

Stick95


 '3X2X2X2X3X ' ' '1X '1O

 '6O4O1X '2O '2O1X ' ' '

Readers65

Position ID: btshEAR+jxkEAA Match ID: UQkxAgAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/9* 8/6 +0.3785
0.57270.05240.0007-0.42730.08450.0028 +0.1098 +0.3785
0.00350.00210.0001-0.00350.00530.0005 0.0092 0.0145
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809619327 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 8/4*/2 +0.3234 ( -0.0551)
0.55690.02300.0006-0.44310.06480.0010 +0.0703 +0.3234
0.00320.00280.0004-0.00320.00540.0009 0.0082 0.0134
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809619327 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 13/9*/7 +0.1994 ( -0.1790)
0.51310.03960.0002-0.48690.07330.0026 -0.0112 +0.1994
0.00300.00200.0001-0.00300.00540.0004 0.0082 0.0151
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 809619327 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Annotation

A tricky play, let's pick apart each play on its own merit.

13/7 (no hit). It's easy to count the shots here, all threes + 21 for a total of 13 shots. With the strength of my board the amount of immediate shots is going to be important. This play, while only leaving one blot and has an ok cleanup if you get away with it, leaves the most shots by far of any of the candidate plays.

13/9*/7. [61 53 43 52 31] for a total of 10 hitting numbers. This almost automatically makes it better than 13/7 without hitting since it's 3 less immediate shots and the cleanup should be even easier in most scenarios.

8/4*/2. [54 53 44 41] for a total of 8 hitting numbers. The pick & pass leaves the fewest immediate returns but is an eye sore. Not easy enough to clean up.

13/9* 8/6. [55 53 54 44 51 41] for a total of 10 hitting numbers. It's may seem odd that the two blot plays easily beat out the one blot play when my board is so strong. The key is the cleanup. This is much easier to put together the 26 times I don't hit and is also an immediate recube wherever I come in. I didn't look at the recubes for all the other positions so I'm not sure if the same can be said.

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