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BGonline.org Forums
Another day, another blunder
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Another day, another blunder (stw672)
Date: Wednesday, 14 January 2009, at 3:33 a.m.
Running out looks right to me. Magriel's criteria, on balance, suggest safety over boldness here and I think running is safer than a loose hit on the 4-point. Running leaves 15 hits vs. 16 after slashing on the 4. If you run and get hit back, you will still only have 1 man back and will still be up in the race. If you slash and are hit back, you will have 2 men back with a roughly even race (and notice that 45 and D2 allow the oppt to hit and make another point making your escape even more difficult). Escaping your back checker is a higher priority for you than fighting for your own 4-point. If the oppt succeeds in making the 21-point, how much does that really help him? It cuts down on your g's a bit but you still will be a big fav to win the game. Another problem with the loose hit is that it committs you to cover the blot. Look at the position if White enters without hitting. On your next roll, you might not be able to cover, or you might cover with a number that otherwise would be good for escaping your back man (62,63).
I also think running brings you closer to a cube. If you run and are missed, you can take a long hard look at that cube. If you hit loose, you can certainly cash if White dances but I don't think you've got enough to cube after any entering roll.
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