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BGonline.org Forums
Much Debated Cube Action from Charlotte
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Much Debated Cube Action from Charlotte (Bill Riles)
Date: Monday, 19 January 2009, at 4:34 a.m.
My initial gut feel on this was that it is a cube. At this score and cube value, you pretty much never want to lose your market if you're within the doubling window which is quite low - at around 31%. My feel is we have that along with the required market losers.
Does that gut feel hold up under scrutiny? Green has to hit, and either cover or have white dance to lose the market. Four cover immediately for 11% wins. The other 11/36 hits produce dances 25/36 times for 275/1096 = 25%. So 36% of the time we lose our market by waiting. But do we win 31% when cubing? Almost any hitting number that doesn't cover immediately gives at least 25 covers if we're missed (51 gives 24, but 55 and 56 give 33 and 30) so we average about 26.5 covers. So the 25% hit/dance scenario reduces to 18.4% hit/dance/cover. So right here with the immediate covers, we're at 29.5% wins. But we've got to be winning close to half of the games in which we don't cover immediately which is another 3%. So as I see it we've got at least 32.5% wins. On top of that, I think green wins more often if he misses white than white wins after getting hit and closed out (1% extra wins from white rolling 55 alone). So add say another 2% for 34.5%. In the doubling window, lots of market losers.
Redouble/Take.
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