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NYC Masters Round #1 Play #2 ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 19 January 2009, at 7:07 a.m.

In Response To: NYC Masters Round #1 Play #2 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I left a blot here with 13/9 6/4. My thinking was that 5 men on the midpoint is tough to bring home with no outfield points, and getting hit isn't the end of the world because of Ray's blot on the 5 point and awkward distribution. If I get missed I cover or lift the blot next roll. He has 6 hit and covers though (counting 22), which hurt quite a bit. Just getting hit isn't too great either. GNU says I should just play safe and wait to roll doubles or for Ray to break.

I am not sure that GNU is playing this aggressively enough to give me the 61 antijoker if I break my 5 point. It doesn't blot on the mid with 8 rolls for which I believe it is correct to do so at the score: 21, 31, 32, and 43.

Between the safe plays, 5/3 5/1 is the best, as it doesn't kill checkers and is easier to piece back together.

The score (after 3 games) is: Ray Fogerlund 1, Matt Cohn-Geier 9 (match to 11 points)

Move number 15: Matt Cohn-Geier to play 42

Ray Fogerlund114


' '3X3X1X3X '1X ' ' '5O

'2O '3O2O3O2X ' ' ' '2X

Matt Cohn-Geier109

Position ID: 3HWCwQDmdsAHAA Match ID: cAlqARAASAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier moves 13/9 6/4

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 5/3 5/1 +0.0721
0.55410.02580.0011-0.44590.03300.0007 +0.0899 +0.0721
0.00050.00090.0003-0.00050.00060.0001 0.0014 0.0022
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
7378 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810448325 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 6/2 5/3 +0.0569 ( -0.0153)
0.55090.02870.0009-0.44910.03710.0009 +0.0843 +0.0569
0.00070.00120.0017-0.00070.00070.0001 0.0018 0.0028
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4532 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810448325 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 5/1 4/2 +0.0544 ( -0.0177)
0.54890.02750.0007-0.45110.03600.0008 +0.0829 +0.0544
0.00080.00130.0001-0.00080.00090.0001 0.0021 0.0033
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3042 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810448325 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 4 R 13/9 6/4 +0.0378 ( -0.0344)
0.54260.09690.0186-0.45740.06780.0016 +0.1128 +0.0378
0.00120.00420.0026-0.00120.00160.0001 0.0048 0.0060
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810448325 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 3.24 (min. 1296 games)
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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