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OTB and rollouts and bot evals

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 12:50 p.m.

In Response To: Critcal recube decision from finals (neilkaz)

OTB I sent the cube very quickly since I was sure it was a crushing recube since Rob's last blocked 44 has shattered his game and he has almost no flexibility and is gammon prone. I felt very strongly that this is a clear pass and was happy to see Ron take it. A couple rolls later he had 3 on the roof and was getting blitzed but soon a 11 vs my 5 pt board (one of very few good rolls this match for him) saved him and later he just managed to scamper off the G, inspite of me loose hitting him during my bearoff (this play was very correct since I had a 5 pt board and he had a two pt board).

Snowie thinks the pos is a easy take and GNU takes on 2 and 4 ply. 648 game Snowie rollout says .682 cubeless which it adjusts to a cubeful 1.12 pass. GNU short cubeful rollout says BIG pass.

The score (after 0 games) is: Rod 0, neilkaz 1 (match to 13 points)

Move number 5: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Rod 61, neilkaz 120
Position ID: vzcBwADaPGMABg Match ID: UQmgAQAACAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6561	(Money: +0.6513)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.2080	+0.2080
3.	No double	+0.9244	-0.0756
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 2-cube 0.7197 0.2652 0.0073 - 0.2803 0.0598 0.0007 +0.6561 +0.9244 Standard error 0.0023 0.0049 0.0012 - 0.0023 0.0021 0.0004 0.0071 0.0127 Player Rod owns 4-cube 0.7280 0.2860 0.0121 - 0.2720 0.0600 0.0010 +1.3900 +1.2080 Standard error 0.0030 0.0060 0.0014 - 0.0030 0.0026 0.0005 0.0181 0.0219
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
259 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811508096 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Since there might be some funk with g11 switching to mec26 for matches longer than 11 pts, and since the GNU rollout didn't show much cube vig for Rob's side, I tried a money rollout and this also is a BIG pass.

The score (after 0 games) is: Rod 0, neilkaz 0

Move number 5: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Rod 61, neilkaz 120
Position ID: vzcBwADaPGMABg Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6520
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.2301	+0.2301
3.	No double	+0.9308	-0.0692
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 2-cube 0.7207 0.2613 0.0084 - 0.2793 0.0590 0.0002 +0.6520 +0.9308 Standard error 0.0007 0.0016 0.0005 - 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0024 0.0047 Player Rod owns 4-cube 0.7268 0.2808 0.0152 - 0.2732 0.0542 0.0002 +1.3905 +1.2301 Standard error 0.0009 0.0021 0.0006 - 0.0009 0.0008 0.0000 0.0060 0.0075
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2408 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811508096 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Those taking this need to have a deeper look at the pos. .. neilkaz ..

Messages In This Thread

• Critcal recube decision from finals
  neilkaz -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:12 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    pontiac -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:21 p.m.
    • Some advice for your cube handling
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 4:02 p.m.
      • Some advice for your cube handling
        pontiac -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 4:38 p.m.
        • Some advice for your cube handling
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 4:53 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:29 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:43 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 11:23 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Martin -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 8:52 a.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Stick -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 9:35 a.m.
    • Critcal recube decision from finals
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 9:44 a.m.
  • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 12:50 p.m.
    • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 3:20 p.m.
      • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 3:58 p.m.
        • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
          aoleg1 -- Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 8:41 a.m.
          • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 4:38 p.m.