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OTB and rollouts and bot evals

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 3:20 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and rollouts and bot evals (neilkaz)

The formula for determining the takepoint for money or moneylike scores is 25% +/- half the net gammons then minus the recube vig. I think what led myself and others astray is that we concluded that White can win this thing >25% of the time, and immediately decided to take without considering the big gammon threat against us. I made this same kind of mistake in the Masters event in NYC recently and got g'd and went on to lose the match. I'll have to remember to consider the gammon threat more in the future since you can't afford to make many of these double whopper sized errors.

If I had taken the time to look at some 2-roll sequences here, I'm sure that I would have come to the right conclusion. If Blue hits, it's bad if White dances and even worse if he enters and breaks the 18 with 65,53, or 31. If Blue fails to hit, White's position is still a mess. Most rolls force him to break the 18 and leave 2 or 3 blots when Blue mostly has a 4-point board. It's just a terrible position and I can now see why it's a clear drop.

Messages In This Thread

• Critcal recube decision from finals
  neilkaz -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:12 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    pontiac -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:21 p.m.
    • Some advice for your cube handling
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 4:02 p.m.
      • Some advice for your cube handling
        pontiac -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 4:38 p.m.
        • Some advice for your cube handling
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 4:53 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:29 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 10:43 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 11:23 p.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Martin -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 8:52 a.m.
  • Critcal recube decision from finals
    Stick -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 9:35 a.m.
    • Critcal recube decision from finals
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 9:44 a.m.
  • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 12:50 p.m.
    • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 3:20 p.m.
      • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 3:58 p.m.
        • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
          aoleg1 -- Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 8:41 a.m.
          • OTB and rollouts and bot evals
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 4:38 p.m.