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NYC Round #1 Play #1

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 10:49 p.m.

In Response To: NYC Round #1 Play #1 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Glad to see I am not the only nut that:

1) actually considered 18/17 8/5

2) liked it

It is not nearly as bad as it seems. The "safe" play leaves 17 immediate numbers. If you are missed, and then get a shot and hit the shot, in all likelihood white is then shooting another 11 numbers from the roof at the blot on the 3 point, and we can't pin much hope on winning this without hitting a shot. So it is hardly much safer. And getting hit, even double hit against a 3 point board when we have a 5 is far from fatal. It is important to note here that white is holding the cube. You can't hit a shot, have white dance and then cube. You have to finish the game and that probably means having to make the 3 point eventually. You can do that right now at not much additional risk. The two plays are probably close in terms of wins. However making the 3 will win many more gammons. Since I think the chance of getting gammoned against a 3 point board is small, I have to believe we gain more gammons than we lose with the "reckless" play.

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