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Rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 3:02 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and some bot content (neilkaz)

A considerably easier take than I'd expected as OTB I felt that I had an .80 to .85 take. Perhaps this position is only a borderline cube/ND at an even score, although it would still make sense to cube many players since some are so afraid of being blitzed that they pass.

The score (after 0 games) is: Rod 0, ntk 1 (match to 13 points)

Move number 3: Rod on roll, cube decision?

Rod	152
ntk	164
Position ID: 4HPiAUhh1+ABMA Match ID: MAGgAQAACAAA

• Rod doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4693	(Money: +0.4593)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.6937
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3063
3.	No double	+0.6679	-0.0258
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6256 0.2935 0.0122 - 0.3744 0.0928 0.0048 +0.4693 +0.6679 Standard error 0.0009 0.0012 0.0004 - 0.0009 0.0008 0.0003 0.0027 0.0067 Player ntk owns 2-cube 0.6293 0.2991 0.0116 - 0.3707 0.0913 0.0052 +0.9876 +0.6937 Standard error 0.0010 0.0013 0.0005 - 0.0010 0.0009 0.0005 0.0055 0.0082
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4100 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811535662 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 18 January 2009, at 9:19 p.m.
  • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 18 January 2009, at 10:21 p.m.
    • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 18 January 2009, at 10:52 p.m.
      • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
        Rich Munitz -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 1:37 a.m.
  • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 18 January 2009, at 10:24 p.m.
  • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
    pontiac -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 1:21 a.m.
  • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
    lenny -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 8:31 a.m.
  • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
    Martin -- Monday, 19 January 2009, at 6:55 p.m.
  • 31-63S-65H2-62 cube action from finals in NC
    Stick -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 9:48 a.m.
  • OTB and some bot content
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 7:29 p.m.
    • OTB and some bot content
      Stick -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 8:02 p.m.
      • 5pt vs 4pt what a difference
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 8:31 p.m.
        • 5pt vs 4pt what a difference
          Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 9:05 p.m.
    • Rollout
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 3:02 p.m.