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Vegas Finals 65 Play ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 5:44 p.m.

In Response To: Vegas Finals 65 Play (Matt Cohn-Geier)

As it actually happens, I played 13/2, but I should have volunteered two blots:

The score (after 17 games) is: White 13, Blue 12 (match to 15 points)

Move number 12: Blue to play 65

White	131
Blue	139
Position ID: Yu+CAQOYc8MxAA Match ID: QQn3AdAAYAAA

• Blue moves 13/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	16/11 16/10	+0.0668
			0.5142 0.0411 0.0059 - 0.4858 0.1308 0.0110 +0.0668 +0.0668 0.0018 0.0016 0.0015 - 0.0018 0.0064 0.0028 0.0037 0.0037
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			844 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810811055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	13/2	+0.0502 ( -0.0166)
			0.5061 0.0406 0.0055 - 0.4939 0.0942 0.0064 +0.0502 +0.0502 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 - 0.0016 0.0058 0.0020 0.0035 0.0035
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			844 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810811055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

For money, I should just make my simple play:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 2, Blue 2

Move number 5: Blue to play 65

White	131
Blue	139
Position ID: Yu+CAQOYc8MxAA Match ID: QQkXACAAEAAA

• Blue moves 16/11 16/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/2	-0.1748
			0.5073 0.0414 0.0015 - 0.4927 0.0650 0.0015 -0.0090 -0.1748 0.0008 0.0008 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0011 0.0001 0.0020 0.0029
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2614 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811362890 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	16/11 16/10	-0.1940 ( -0.0192)
			0.5114 0.0745 0.0038 - 0.4886 0.1241 0.0033 -0.0262 -0.1940 0.0011 0.0014 0.0005 - 0.0011 0.0015 0.0002 0.0025 0.0043
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2220 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811362890 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

With the blot on the three point, GNU prefers playing safe by a close but clear margin. The article says that the decision is extremely close but 16/11 16/10 "is probably correct". I tried rolling this out with Snowie, and sure enough, it has a very marginal preference for 16/11 16/10. I trust GNU here, though.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 13, Blue 12 (match to 15 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 65

White	132
Blue	139
Position ID: ZO+CAQOYc8MxAA Match ID: QQn3AdAAYAAA

• Blue moves 16/11 16/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/2	+0.0513
			0.5086 0.0365 0.0038 - 0.4914 0.0873 0.0049 +0.0513 +0.0513 0.0014 0.0013 0.0017 - 0.0014 0.0053 0.0015 0.0029 0.0029
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			964 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811208589 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	16/11 16/10	+0.0389 ( -0.0125)
			0.4974 0.0471 0.0088 - 0.5026 0.1584 0.0146 +0.0389 +0.0389 0.0018 0.0017 0.0021 - 0.0018 0.0066 0.0027 0.0039 0.0039
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			964 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811208589 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

(Green) vs. (White)
15 point Match

Match to 15. Score Green-White: 12-13

		Pip: 132
		Game 1 15 point match Green-White: Score 12-13
		Pip: 139

#	Ply	Move	Equity
1	R	16/10 16/11	0.059
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.082 ±0.010. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 56784 games), played 3-ply (standard), seed 1, without race database.
2	R	13/2	0.049 (-0.009)
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.008 ±0.008. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 101244 games), played 3-ply (standard), seed 1, without race database.

With the blot on the three point for money, playing safe is clear.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 13, Blue 12

Move number 5: Blue to play 65

White	132
Blue	139
Position ID: ZO+CAQOYc8MxAA Match ID: QQkXANAAYAAA

• Blue moves 13/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/2	-0.1644
			0.5108 0.0404 0.0014 - 0.4892 0.0665 0.0013 -0.0043 -0.1644 0.0011 0.0011 0.0003 - 0.0011 0.0013 0.0004 0.0027 0.0038
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1404 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811362890 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	16/11 16/10	-0.2386 ( -0.0742)
			0.4989 0.0653 0.0029 - 0.5011 0.1359 0.0040 -0.0739 -0.2386 0.0014 0.0012 0.0003 - 0.0014 0.0016 0.0004 0.0032 0.0052
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811362890 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

With the blot on the ace point, volunteering is clear, even for money. 13/7 8/3 doesn't really gain much.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 13, Blue 12

Move number 5: Blue to play 65

White	130
Blue	139
Position ID: Ye+CAQOYc8MxAA Match ID: QQkXANAAYAAA

• Blue moves 16/11 16/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	16/11 16/10	-0.1065
			0.5275 0.0646 0.0027 - 0.4725 0.0925 0.0011 +0.0287 -0.1065 0.0047 0.0058 0.0009 - 0.0047 0.0064 0.0005 0.0121 0.0247
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			131 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810666572 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/2	-0.1573 ( -0.0508)
			0.5130 0.0404 0.0023 - 0.4870 0.0664 0.0009 +0.0014 -0.1573 0.0032 0.0037 0.0006 - 0.0032 0.0046 0.0004 0.0082 0.0120
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			131 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810666572 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/7 8/3	-0.2030 ( -0.0966)
			0.5062 0.0587 0.0022 - 0.4938 0.0853 0.0032 -0.0152 -0.2030 0.0036 0.0048 0.0011 - 0.0036 0.0058 0.0006 0.0084 0.0123
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			130 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810666572 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 17 games) is: White 13, Blue 12 (match to 15 points)

Move number 14: Blue to play 65

White	130
Blue	139
Position ID: Ye+CAQOYc8MxAA Match ID: QQn3AdAAYAAA

• Blue moves 16/11 16/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	16/11 16/10	+0.0961
			0.5294 0.0398 0.0092 - 0.4706 0.0969 0.0036 +0.0961 +0.0961 0.0032 0.0035 0.0061 - 0.0032 0.0141 0.0028 0.0073 0.0073
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			178 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810811055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/2	+0.0624 ( -0.0337)
			0.5110 0.0432 0.0113 - 0.4890 0.0933 0.0029 +0.0624 +0.0624 0.0034 0.0031 0.0059 - 0.0034 0.0115 0.0011 0.0071 0.0071
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			177 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810811055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/7 8/3	+0.0585 ( -0.0376)
			0.5022 0.0579 0.0044 - 0.4978 0.1069 0.0058 +0.0585 +0.0585 0.0038 0.0039 0.0012 - 0.0038 0.0116 0.0027 0.0078 0.0078
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			170 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810811055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

With the blot on the 4 point, it's clear to play safe, even at the score.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 13, Blue 12 (match to 15 points)

Move number 5: Blue to play 65

White	133
Blue	139
Position ID: aO+CAQOYc8MxAA Match ID: QQn3AdAAYAAA

• Blue moves 13/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/2	+0.0594
			0.5092 0.0438 0.0027 - 0.4908 0.0790 0.0105 +0.0594 +0.0594 0.0037 0.0037 0.0010 - 0.0037 0.0125 0.0058 0.0079 0.0079
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			136 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811362890 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	16/11 16/10	-0.0015 ( -0.0609)
			0.4750 0.0520 0.0027 - 0.5250 0.1806 0.0244 -0.0015 -0.0015 0.0047 0.0036 0.0008 - 0.0047 0.0139 0.0126 0.0104 0.0104
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			135 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 811362890 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Will post some centered cube rollouts later.

Messages In This Thread

• Vegas Finals 65 Play
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 7:25 p.m.
  • Vegas Finals 65 Play
    rummer1973 -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 7:35 p.m.
    • Vegas Finals 65 Play
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 9:32 p.m.
  • Another variant
    Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 20 January 2009, at 8:53 p.m.
  • Vegas Finals 65 Play ROLLOUTS
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 21 January 2009, at 5:44 p.m.