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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 20 November 2006, at 3:17 a.m.

In Response To: 64P-52S-42? (Stick)

I'm a bit surprised everyone didn't go with the 'normal' looking play as their first choice. Making the 4 pt. is nice, it gives you a 3 pt. board and since you made your two point and theory goes the 8 pt. doesn't go well with the 2 pt. it's no large concession giving up the 8. Here I think it is though, because it leaves a blot and fails to do some of the other things that the best play does.

24/20 13/11 unstacks the heavy midpoint and gets the back men rolling before White has any sort of board (right now he's technically outboared 2-1) and he doesn't have any extra builders aimed at his five point. This play covers all parts of the board, leaving your army well connected. .030 is a rather large margin for best play v. 2nd best play for a 3rd roll position and since I play about half of my opening 6-4s by making the two point I'm making room in my head for it =P

Question you should have been wondering looking at this too is 6-4 (two point) 5-2 reply, was it right to split or should White have brought down two!?

Money Game
160
157
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/20 13/11 -0.007
0.6% 14.8% 49.5% 50.5% 13.8% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.000 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 178371 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/4 6/4 -0.037 (-0.029)
0.5% 15.9% 48.0% 52.0% 13.8% 0.8%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.022 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 175187 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 24/20 24/22 -0.055 (-0.048)
0.5% 12.7% 48.5% 51.5% 13.6% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.038 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 187486 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
4 R 24/18 -0.068 (-0.060)
0.5% 12.8% 48.6% 51.4% 14.8% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.048 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 187799 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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