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Take point at 1aw/4aw pC

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 4:01 p.m.

In Response To: Take point at 1aw/4aw pC (Carlo Melzi)

I'm doing a bunch of rollouts on this score right now. I'll know more soon. For now, I think your math is basically correct. But, your conclusion is suspect. I wouldn't waste too much time analyzing the 0% gammon assumption. You are usually going to get the cube immediately.

I expect that the average winning percentage for a borderline take / drop will still be around 50%. However, there will be a difference in WHICH moves are takes and which are drops because of gammon variability as you mention. Also, the initial and second roll moves which are best will vary from the best moves at 2a1aP. (There's a huge difference in moves). And, at 4a1aP I am guessing that 1a will frequently get the cube immediately after winning the initial roll and will have a clear drop. At 2a1aP there are a couple of initial moves which are borderline take / drops but taking is always reasonable.

So, there are many differences between 2a1aP and 4a1aP even though you are still right that a small disadvantage will bring a correct free drop. Stay tuned.

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