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La Réponse

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 8:21 p.m.

In Response To: Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match (Bill Riles)

I'm feeling saucy today, maybe it's because MCG has bombarded me to explain anything yet today that I can take the time to explain this.

Let's see the gammonless take point for the leader first.

• D+P = 2a 3a for 60% ME
• D+T+W = match won 100% ME
• D+T+L = 2a 2a for 50% ME

So we're risking 10%, the difference between passing and taking and losing (60%-50%=10%) to gain 40%, the difference between passing and taking and winning (100%-60%).

Risking 10% to gain 40%, seems like easy math to me, getting 4-1 on your take gives you a gammonless take point of 80%.

We also know the gammon price (value) for White after turning the cube is 1. This is different than for money where the gammon price is .5. If anyone needs this explained further say so and I will, for now we'll assume you understand that. You own gammons are worthless also so that means that for your opponent winning a gammon is just like winning a game.

So to figure out if you can take here you need to guess how often your opponent wins, guess how often your opponent wins a gammon and add that to your guesstimate of win percentage and if that figure is less than 80% you take.

Most *standard* holding games start off with the doubler's winning percentage somewhere in the low 70s depending on many small details. Here White's game looks better than average because Green is going to crack next turn allowing White to possibly hit a shot to bring the position home easily. Even if this sequence doesn't happen, White will only leave at most a direct shot +.

If Green gets lucky enough to hit the shot he still has to bring it home. There's no cubing the 4a player out at this score, you can't just hit & cash if your opponent fans. So the fact that Green's board is a bit bent out of shape could cost him a shade more. Those blots may also be a factor in losing a gammon when he does hit before covering either blot and White enters immediately.

Anyway, I would guess White wins upwards of 74% games and 10% gammons. The math is easy from here, 74+10=84, is 84 >> 80? If so, pass. Big pass for me.

Variant #1

I suggest thinking about the dilly builder on the 3pt being moved to the 2pt for Green and see what you think of the position now.

Variant #2

From Variant #1 take the blotted ace point checker for Green and place him on the 18pt (defensive bar point). Thoughts now?

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match
  Bill Riles -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 5:05 p.m.
  • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
    Bill Riles -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 5:12 p.m.
    • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 5:53 p.m.
      • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
        Bill Riles -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 6:00 p.m.
        • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 6:13 p.m.
        • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 6:57 p.m.
          • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
            Bill Riles -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 7:15 p.m.
            • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 7:20 p.m.
            • Another Charlotte Cube Decision from Same Match -- OTB
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 7:28 p.m.
  • La Réponse
    Stick -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 8:21 p.m.
    • La Réponse
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 8:39 p.m.
    • OTB calculation time
      Tad Bright -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 10:43 p.m.
      • OTB calculation time
        Stick -- Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 10:48 p.m.