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Take point at 1aw/4aw pC

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 22 January 2009, at 8:28 p.m.

In Response To: Take point at 1aw/4aw pC (Bob Koca)

I agree with your math. However, the criteria for taking at 4a1aP is different than the criteria for taking at 2a1aP. The former is a GS type of score and the latter is a DMP type of score. The evaluation of a particular position (such as an opening 62S which has relatively high gammons against) will vary at these two scores. We think of this as a "free drop". However, the underlying mathematics have the same type of formulas they would have at other scores such as 3a2a. There's a take point and there is a price of gammons and it isn't 100% clear to me how it all comes together at the score in question. As Carlo pointed out in the original post, the take point at this score is somewhere around 35%, but needs to be adjusted up for gammons lost. Since gammons lost vary by opening roll, we can't look at just the winning % in determining whether or not to take.

I probably (no, certainly) should have kept my mouth shut on this point until I checked the rollouts since I really don't have the facts yet. I will check the rollouts tonight or soon, try to figure out what is happening and post again. It may be that I'm wrong and that all initial rolls are takes. We'll see.

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