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BGonline.org Forums
Take point at 1aw/4aw pC
Posted By: David Rockwell In Response To: Take point at 1aw/4aw pC (David Rockwell)
Date: Friday, 23 January 2009, at 2:56 a.m.
When I left for work this morning, several rollouts were showing double / drop after the initial roll. When I returned, they had reversed by a very small amount. The rollouts are short and inadequate, so they would not have been conclusive anyway. At this point, I don't have evidence of an initial roll that is a drop. (That's assuming you made the best move of course.) So, taking the cube after any initial roll appears to be a reasonable stance.
Here's a close one. A deeper rollout is needed. If you play 52D, you need to drop.
1. Rollout 24/22 13/8 Eq.: -0.9973
0.4976 0.1936 0.0347 - 0.5024 0.1407 0.0199 CL -0.3000 CF -0.9973
[0.0023 0.0062 0.0038 - 0.0023 0.0021 0.0027 CL 0.0065 CF 0.0100]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1182 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810560163 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 13/11 13/8 Eq.: -1.0357 ( -0.0385)
0.4914 0.2222 0.0411 - 0.5086 0.1467 0.0257 CL -0.3250 CF -1.0017
[0.0024 0.0067 0.0041 - 0.0024 0.0024 0.0037 CL 0.0070 CF 0.0105]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1182 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810560163 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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