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Rollout(s)

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 22 March 2007, at 9:19 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Wed. March 21st -- Cube (Stick)

The bottom rollout is the Snowie money rollout. I'll probably extend it further but I imagine it'll stay in the ballpark, becoming a stronger double if anything (just my thoughts) You barely won the take vote by a 'reluctant' Chuck take. Since it is a majority vote I had to ask myself the question if I thought I could get 1/2 of you to drop, and I thought I just might. Didn't get there but you see how close I got ... Nice take if you took, if you passed (esp. at this score) I suggest you put the position in & play it out as Blue, you'll see how often things go your way. I'm too tired to try to explain any bg right now, religion posting wore me out lol

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 21, user 14 (match to 25 points)

gnubg161


' ' '1X2X2X1X3X1X ' '2O

' '1X2O3X3O '3O '3O '1X

user156

Position ID: mHOOAWBo60LACQ Match ID: MAEqA1ABcAAA

• gnubg doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4675(Money: +0.5381)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.5983
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.4017
3.Double, take +0.3198 -0.2785
Proper cube action:No double, take (40.9%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.66520.24780.0269-0.33480.06550.0015 +0.4675 +0.5983
Standard error0.00220.00450.0032-0.00220.00160.0004 0.0076 0.0177
Player user owns 2-cube0.66690.27500.0407-0.33310.06040.0018 +0.8328 +0.3198
Standard error0.00250.00720.0045-0.00250.00170.0003 0.0167 0.0253
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
880 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1059806842 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.527
0.7% 25.7% 67.1% 32.9% 7.6% 0.3%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.527 ±0.021, - live cube no double: 0.751 ±0.043, - live cube double take: 0.777 ±0.058. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 507 games (equiv. 12912 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0.814
2. No double 0.766 (-0.047)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.186)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.777
2. No double 0.751 (-0.026)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.223)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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