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BGonline.org Forums
I Certainly Don't Understand This One -- Cube Action -- OTB
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: I Certainly Don't Understand This One -- Cube Action -- OTB (Bill Riles)
Date: Friday, 23 January 2009, at 11:20 p.m.
How often do you win from here? Once you redouble you virtually kill your gammons as 1) you are only 1 point from match anyway and 2) the cube comes back to 8 practically any time White has a market loser.
With 3s, 4s, and 1s to cover you miss with 6s, 5s, and 2s. That's 62, 52, 65, 66, 55 for 8 misses. Once you do cover, you still have a guy behind a prime...i.e. White probably still has a take after you cover, unless you manage to cover with a 6.
White's TP works out to somewhere around 21%:
Drop for -3, -7 for 24%. Take and lose for Cr, -7 for 9%. Take and win for -3, -5 for 65%.
However, White should redouble to 8 pretty much anytime there is a market loser. So White will almost always win 8 points. When White loses it will usually be 8 (either by a recube or a gammon) but sometimes he will only lose 4. Let's say that 2/3 of the time he loses 8 points and 1/3 he loses 4. Who knows whether this is accurate at all, but it's sufficient. Then opp is risking 21% (24% - 3%) to gain 76%. So TP is about 21/97 which is close to 21%. I don't believe that you win 79% of the games at this point.
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