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I Must Be Living Wrong..quick rollout etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 6:31 p.m.

In Response To: I Must Be Living Wrong (Rich Munitz)

Rich.."Could have been a skill adjusted take? That thought had actually crossed my mind!"

Neil.."In the long run thoughts like that need to be purged from one's mind. GNU is winning this position 6.5% of the time and certainly your opp cannot do better than that. I have my own method for mentally estimating MET's for unequal skills. So here goes.. for equal skill 0-4C is 15.6%. The trailer needs to win 3 games in a row (12.5%) if he never G's you. 1/4 of 12.5 is 3.125 and adding those together gives 15.625%. I'll use the same approach and assume that your opp can only win 40% at DMP (ie SUPER weak). This fishcake can win 3 games in a row 6.4% of the time and multiplying by 1.25 means that his ME is 8% if he passes (assuming he about 14% of his wins are G's as I assume for equal players). Using this method, the fishcake would have a borderline decision if he could win 3/8 of the time at DMP !!

Neil..anyhow, we see that unless this opp's checker play is so bad that he can only win 3/8 at DMP, he has a pass here. In all honestly, it is hard to imagine someone that weak, and even if he has a bare take, he has to make that take and that still doesn't mean your cube is wrong !

Messages In This Thread

• I Must Be Living Wrong
  Bill Riles -- Friday, 23 January 2009, at 9:36 p.m.
  • I Must Be Living Wrong -- OTB
    Bill Riles -- Friday, 23 January 2009, at 9:38 p.m.
    • I Must Be Living Wrong -- OTB
      Coolrey -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 11:24 a.m.
  • I Must Be Living Wrong
    Martin -- Friday, 23 January 2009, at 9:49 p.m.
  • I Must Be Living Wrong
    Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 12:05 a.m.
    • I Must Be Living Wrong
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 1:48 p.m.
      • I Must Be Living Wrong
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 5:47 p.m.
        • I Must Be Living Wrong
          Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 6:06 p.m.
          • I Must Be Living Wrong..quick rollout etc
            neilkaz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 6:31 p.m.
            • Quick rollout here...
              neilkaz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 6:32 p.m.
            • I Must Be Living Wrong..quick rollout etc
              Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 8:12 p.m.
        • I Must Be Living Wrong
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 6:10 p.m.