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OTB and rollout etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 4:03 p.m.

In Response To: MCG vs Neil...recube action ? (neilkaz)

OTB Matt thought a bit and me, being ahead 12 pips and with Matt having a dead checker couldn't pass. My assessment of the position was that it was a good recube at an even score, but with Matt leading 3-1, technically it might be a bit better to wait. I would've wait one turn and then cubed any sequence in which my opp danced. Had Matt waited and rolled anything except a small number I'd have passed if I danced again. That assessment should have lead me to see that he had a good cube, but when playing and presented with a 4 cube my task is only to evaluate if I should take it, which I felt certain I should.

After taking, I danced 5 times including missing a 14 number shot from the roof after Matt rolled a horrid blotting set of 5's, but later my funeral procession stopped as I came back from 7-1 to win with a back game at DMP. The rollout shows that my chances were a bit less than I expected and that GNU was clearly wrong with it's evaluation that didn't care for Matt's fine recube.

The score (after 3 games) is: Neil Kazaross 1, Matt Cohn-Geier 3 (match to 11 points)

Move number 38: Matt Cohn-Geier on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Neil Kazaross 76, Matt Cohn-Geier 88
Position ID: N/cGAEA3twFSAA Match ID: UQlgARAAGAAA

• Matt Cohn-Geier doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5443	(Money: +0.5467)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9637
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0363
3.	No double	+0.8871	-0.0766
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 2-cube 0.7747 0.0145 0.0002 - 0.2253 0.0171 0.0003 +0.5443 +0.8871 Standard error 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0006 0.0005 0.0001 0.0012 0.0031 Player Neil Kazaross owns 4-cube 0.7897 0.0122 0.0003 - 0.2103 0.0168 0.0004 +1.1491 +0.9637 Standard error 0.0007 0.0004 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0001 0.0031 0.0038
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1849 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810617536 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
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Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• MCG vs Neil...recube action ?
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 6:44 p.m.
  • MCG vs Neil...recube action ?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 8:51 p.m.
  • MCG vs Neil...recube action ?
    Neil Robins -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 9:04 p.m.
  • MCG vs Neil...recube action ?
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 9:26 p.m.
  • MCG vs Neil...recube action ?
    Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 24 January 2009, at 11:49 p.m.
  • MCG vs Neil...recube action ?
    sal pittelli -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 1:50 a.m.
  • OTB and rollout etc
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 4:03 p.m.
    • OTB and rollout etc
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 6:32 p.m.
      • OTB and rollout etc
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 7:19 p.m.
    • OTB and rollout etc
      David Rockwell -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 10:28 p.m.
      • OTB and rollout etc
        neilkaz -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 12:44 p.m.