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BGonline.org Forums
MCG vs. Neil Cube action?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: MCG vs. Neil Cube action? (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 10:26 p.m.
Does Neil have a take? My OTB estimates are that if Neil just takes and never redoubles (very unlikely of course), he needs 29% plus half of MCG's gammons less 56% of his own. I would guess Matt's/Neil's gammons are in the 35%/8% range which puts Neil's naive takepoint at around 42%. I don't think he wins this thing 42% cubeless but he's gots lots of recube vig ATS. Matt's 4-cube takepoint at this score is around 27.25% plus around 90% of Neil's gammons. If Neil has (on average) around a 10% gammon chance when he recubes, Matt's takepoint jumps up to around 36%. Recube vig is usually worth about 70% of the product of the naive takepoint (42%) and the opponent's 4-cube takepoint (36%), about 10.5%. So Neil can take with about 31.5% cubeless chances. Can he win it this often? He's down 16 pips in the race, he doesn't have an anchor, and he's got a weaker board with a blot. OTOH, Matt will hit loose a lot in this position and Neil will be roughly even money if he can hit back (depending on what he hits back with). Still, I don't know if he can win this thing close to a third of the time. Looks like a close pass to me.
How about volatility? D3,D4, and D5 are big mkt losers along with any hit loose-fan sequence. That's about 14/36 big mkt losers which almost always means you should be cubing. How about the non-hitting rolls? Are you doing alright if you roll one of them? Most of them can be played safely without killing checkers and only 51 or D6 force you to leave a direct shot.
Plus you're playing against Neil so you've gotta send it over. Double/pass IMHO.
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