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OTB thoughts and rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 26 January 2009, at 3:26 a.m.

In Response To: DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ? (neilkaz)

OTB I felt this was close, but the deciding factors were 1) it is DMP so stay way back forever, 2) I need to make my 5 pt and if I play 24/21 I may end up not making it if the dice don't cooperate. 3) I don't want to allow Matt to use his stack on the 3 pt. Against my choice of 7/5 10/9 is the fact that my 21 backgame may sometimes misstime esp. if I get pointed on and enter quickly.

Anyhow I stayed back and this backgame worked and a while later Matt had 4 guys on my 2 pt and the other 11 on his 3 pt so I won easily.

However, in the OP, if I had my 5 pt made and the same pip count, I'm not sure which play is best and have started that rollout.

The score (after 11 games) is: Matt Cohn-Geier 9, Neil Kazaross 9 (match to 11 points)

Move number 39: Neil Kazaross to play 21

Pip counts: Matt Cohn-Geier 83, Neil Kazaross 170
Position ID: PHc7AABsbQRANg Match ID: UQllAZAASAAA

• Neil Kazaross moves 10/9 7/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/9 7/5	-0.0435
			0.4783 0.0657 0.0085 - 0.5217 0.3505 0.1677 -0.0435 -0.0435 0.0039 0.0060 0.0017 - 0.0039 0.0089 0.0082 0.0079 0.0079
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			758 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810997169 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/21	-0.0818 ( -0.0383)
			0.4591 0.0700 0.0078 - 0.5409 0.4190 0.1282 -0.0818 -0.0818 0.0028 0.0054 0.0016 - 0.0028 0.0087 0.0085 0.0056 0.0056
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			759 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 810997169 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	4	7/6 7/5	-0.1367 ( -0.0933)
			0.4316 0.0492 0.0012 - 0.5684 0.2899 0.0490
	4	2	7/5 3/2	-0.1800 ( -0.1365)
			0.4100 0.0336 0.0006 - 0.5900 0.3188 0.0673
	5	2	10/8 7/6	-0.1940 ( -0.1505)
			0.4030 0.0357 0.0006 - 0.5970 0.3155 0.0600

Messages In This Thread

• DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 4:07 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    PersianLord -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 5:05 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 5:33 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 6:15 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    Martin -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 6:37 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 6:46 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    sal pittelli -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 9:09 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 10:04 p.m.
  • DMP ..which backgame, or is there more than that to consider ?
    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 25 January 2009, at 10:31 p.m.
  • OTB thoughts and rollout
    neilkaz -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 3:26 a.m.
    • OTB thoughts and rollout
      Rich Munitz -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 4:04 a.m.
      • OTB thoughts and rollout
        neilkaz -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 3:51 p.m.
        • Rollout with 5 pt made TCTC
          neilkaz -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 11:05 p.m.
          • Rollout with 5 pt made TCTC
            Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 3:33 a.m.
  • a vote for the
    garyo -- Monday, 26 January 2009, at 8:35 a.m.