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OTB thoughts

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 26 January 2009, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: MCG vs. Neil Cube action? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I thought about this one for a couple minutes before I cubed.

First question: is it a take? For money? Not sure. It sure looks like a giant cube for money, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a big pass as White. Lots of stuff hits and I have some huge crushers. I can attack the checker and just gammon him; if the attack fails I can often still just break contact and win the race. At the score? I was pretty certain this was a take AtS. But the fact that it's a big take AtS doesn't mean it isn't a cube.

Second question: will Neil take? I had very little doubt that Neil would take this one. This isn't really a position where I want to get tricky vs. Neil either as I'd need to be pretty sure that he'd pass or fail to get much out of his recube vig...both of which I think are pretty improbable.

Third question: is it a cube? It sure has all the makings of a cube. I've got position, race, and threats. I can hit loose and overshoot my market by a ton and then cash if he enters without hitting or play on if he dances. That's the cubeful overkill play, though, and I sure like my market losing sequences a lot more when the cube is already turned. I am still 4-away and can use all 4 points from a gammon so I felt this was a close but correct cube.

Fourth question: do I cube Neil here? Against a lesser player I may be able to wait for the huge cubes and don't have to cube the marginal ones since my equity is so good from -4 -10 anyway. Against Neil, I just have to take my shots and hope the dice fall my way. I can't afford to give him too many free rolls when I feel I have a cube, and getting to -2 or putting the match away altogether is big.

Final answer: I cubed here, and lived to regret it. I rolled 51 (played 13/7), Neil responded with 55 and ran away, evening up the race. However I rolled 55 a couple rolls later and broke contact, but I rolled very subpar in the resulting race and Neil won the game and 2 points.

I have a rollout but it's at home, I will have to wait until tomorrow to post it.

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