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Double for the match?

Posted By: Bill Riles
Date: Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 7:45 p.m.

In Response To: Double for the match? (Frank_N_Stein)

The key consideration in this position is that if you hit a checker you have a fairly good chance of picking up a second checker and winning a gammon -- thus winning the match w/o the risk of losing 4 points (and the match) if you double and miss. ND/T.

Contrast this with an amended position where the opponent has 14 checkers safe and only the one checker on his bar point. You have checkers on his 4 and 6 points. So, you have the identical immediate shots. However, there is not a second checker to pick up so there is an extreme unlikelihood of winning a gammon. To win the match on this game you must double. Otherwise, you're down 0-2/3, only 25% match equity; whereas, if you cube, you have slightly less than 55% match equity (you'll lose the rare game even after hitting). D/T.

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