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Double for the match?

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Tuesday, 27 January 2009, at 10:32 p.m.

In Response To: Double for the match? (Tad Bright)

Your winning chances are better than 55.5%.

When you miss, 25% of the time you get another potentially game winning shot when your opponent rolls 13 14 15 16 33. That adds .45 * .25 * .31 = 3.5%. Total is 59%.

I'll assume that the chance of blue winning after failing to hit either shot is about the same as the chance of white winning after getting hit, so ignore these scenarios.

Since either you hold the cube, or your opponent holds a dead cube, your winning chances will be 59% whether you double or not. Since you give away a worthless cube, and you are a solid favorite in the game, you must be increasing your equity by doubling. What complicates things is that by doubling you also kill gammons for both players. Figure 33% of blue's wins (20%) are gammons and 15% of white's (6%). So killing gammons reduces blue's equity.

Does the equity gained from wins by doubling exceed the equity lost from killing gammons?

Blue's match equity is 59% if he redoubles.

For no redouble, meq is 20%*100%(WG) + 39%*69%(W) + 6%*0%(LG) + 35%*31%(L) = 57.8%

So it looks to me like it is correct to cube for the match.

Redouble/Take

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